As the endurance mileage of new energy vehicles increases, the traditional lithium iron phosphate power battery gradually gave way to ternary cathode materials battery. The quality of ternary cathode materials directly influences the power battery performance. High nickel material will be the future development trend. Compared with the traditional anode materials, nickelic ternary cathode materials technology has high barrier, and the gross margin can reach more than 25% (the traditional anode is less than 10%). However, at present, the high technology products are basically foreign giants, and although the domestic manufacturers have begun to lay out the high-end production lines, they will achieve mass production in the next 2-3 years.
New energy has good market, which increases the requirements of ternary cathode materials. It is expected that the demand of the passenger car power battery of ternary cathode materials downstream will increase by 40%, which has wide market in the future. The global demand for power cells will reach 120 GWH by 2020. The demand of ternary cathode materials will be up to 300,000 tons. The industry has maintained steady growth. In China, it is expected to ship 218,000 tons of positive material and more than 40% of CAGR in 2020.
The supply of high nickel materials is seriously insufficient, and the competition for low-end production capacity is intensified. There is a severe shortage of high-end materials. Last year, the production of the NCA, 811/622, and the domestic ternary cathode material accounted for only 1% of the total value of the positive materials. At present, only Ningbo Jinhe has 811 amount produces ability in China. The main domestic material manufacturers have the capacity expansion plan to deal with the demand of the high speed growth of the downstream power cell to ternary cathode material. At present, production capacity has reached 135,000 tons.
Technical advantage creates profitable time. The future development trend of ternary cathode material is nickelic ternary cathode material, with high technology and high technology threshold. It is particularly important for enterprises to control the quality of products, and the first to achieve technological breakthrough means to preempt the profit. At present, the major domestic and positive material manufacturers have plans to expand their production, and the timely production of the superposition of the project will enable the company's revenue to increase rapidly and its performance will increase greatly.
The company with complete industry chain will gain more market share based on channel barriers. ①Resource scarcity has led to higher raw material prices. The enterprises that have upstream cobalt nickel mine, the complete closed-loop industrial chain with the recycling capacity of waste batteries as well as outstanding cost advantages, will gain a larger market share. ②The stable downstream customer channel is the foundation for the smooth expansion of the company's capacity. Channel barriers ensure that the company's profitability continues to grow. The upstream and downstream of the global new energy industry chain is accelerating the integration of the industrial alliance. A few enterprises with technological advantages and high-quality downstream customers will emerge, and the future industry will be polarized.
From waste battery recycling professional committee